Dear Mr. Fantasy: Few angels in the outfield
have you taken a look at the outfield rankings recently?
you should. if you wait too much longer, they’ll end up looking so funky you’ll assume you woke up in an alternate dimension, which could lead you down the path of paranoia and straight to the loony bin, destroying whatever miserable existence you’ve come to know as life.
Don’t say I didn’t warn you.
So to save your sanity, we’ll do this together, with our minds grounded in truth, convinced that each of us is real. you ready? In standard Head-to-Head leagues, the top six outfielders are as follows: Josh Hamilton, Carl Crawford, Jose Bautista, Aubrey Huff, Vladimir Guerrero and Alex Rios.
Not exactly the way you drew it up on Draft Day.
no doubt, Hamilton and Crawford belong, but the others, for as good as they’ve been this season, simply don’t compute. what happened to all those players drafted in the first, second and third rounds? Surely, the game hasn’t changed that much in four months.
you have a hard time believing it, and even if you do believe it, you have a hard time believing it’ll last.
And that’s the problem with the outfield position right now. The elite class consists of a bunch of overachievers who nobody completely trusts.
There’s no such thing as a sure thing, which makes upgrading at the position anything but straightforward.
I currently have a five-game lead in my 12-team Head-to-Head league thanks largely to your advice. Trade deadline this week, and I have Derek Jeter and Jose Reyes at shortstop and Brian McCann and Carlos Santana at catcher. Do I keep the reserves or trade them for a stud outfielder? if the latter, which players should I trade, and what outfielder should I target? — Brian Carlson
SW: I never like to leave elite players on my bench. if points are going out the window instead of toward my bottom line, then I’m not making efficient use of my resources. someone out there could use those points and would give me something I could use in return. It’s Trading 101.
Having said that, you’re in somewhat of a unique position with a five-game lead. those don’t happen for teams on the fringe. You’re obviously stacked, which makes me wonder how much a tweak here or there would really do for you.
Catcher and shortstop are the two hardest positions to fill. if a starter gets hurt there, whatever you find off the waiver wire won’t even come close. Your best bet — again, in your rare situation — might be to protect your investment. It’s like reorganizing your portfolio at age 60. You’re already there, man; go for the bonds.
of course, catcher is so weak that having a top option there is almost unnecessary. if you have to start a scrub there, most everybody is in the same boat with you, so you don’t really lose any ground. For that reason, trading McCann probably wouldn’t expose you to much risk.
still, in order to justify that move, you’d have to get something safe in return, and given the topsy-turvy state of the outfield position, the only players I feel comfortable calling elite are Josh Hamilton, Carl Crawford, Matt Holliday and Ryan Braun.
you could feel out the owners of those four players, but if you’d have to give up more than McCann and a couple of replaceable reserves to land one, it’s not worth it (again, in your unique situation).
OK, so I’m loaded in the pitching department with Josh Beckett, Chad Billingsley, Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Edinson Volquez, Mat Latos, Shaun Marcum and Hiroki Kuroda. My issue is at first base, where I have Lance Berkman. I mean, he’s serviceable, I guess, but I have a tentative deal on the table where I’d trade him Oswalt and Hamels for Adrian Gonzalez, Brett Myers and Ian Kennedy. I have the depth and I’d be getting the best player in Gonzalez, but I feel like I’d be giving up too much. what do you think? — Justin McAuliffe
SW: I kind of agree with you, Justin, but then again, I’m not as critical of Berkman as you are.
He has been a Fantasy favorite of mine since bill Clinton was in office, so I’m well-acquainted with his patterns and tendencies. just when you think you can’t take any more of his nonsense, he’ll blow up and perform like the best player in baseball for two months. He might not have quite the same ceiling anymore, but at age 34, he should still have something left in the tank. I wouldn’t quit on him.
Gonzalez is clearly the best player in this deal, but I think you’d have to sacrifice too much pitching to get him. Hamels and Oswalt are near-aces. Hamels is on the verge of becoming one with an 0.40 ERA over his last three starts, and Oswalt would already be one if he didn’t pitch for the Astros. The pitchers you’d get in return don’t even compare. Kennedy is waiver fodder, and Myers, while serviceable, isn’t someone you should trust on an every-week basis. With this deal, your no. 2 pitcher would become Latos, who is on a strict innings count. I don’t like the sound of that.
perhaps coupling one of Hamels and Oswalt with Berkman for Gonzalez would make sense, but not both. you don’t patch a hole by creating another.
I’m in a 12-team Head-to-Head keeper league where every team keeps 13 players. With the trade deadline approaching, I need help narrowing down which players I should keep. My starting infielders — Joey Votto, Chase Utley, Evan Longoria and Elvis Andrus (what do you think of him?) — are no-brainers. I have both Buster Posey and Carlos Santana and would love to keep the two, but I might have to settle for just Posey. My starting pitchers are Ubaldo Jimenez, Felix Hernandez, Yovani Gallardo, Jered Weaver, Tommy Hanson, Chad Billingsley, Max Scherzer and Madison Bumgarner. I’m thinking I have to keep at least the first five. My outfield consists of Matt Kemp, Denard Span, Carlos Quentin, Brennan Boesch, Michael Stanton, Domonic Brown and Andres Torres. anybody worth keeping there? — Lenny Estrella, Nutley, N.J.
SW: Based on your phrasing, I’m assuming you wouldn’t have to sacrifice any draft picks or auction dollars for these players, so value isn’t an issue here. you just want the best 13, perhaps adjusting a little for age just because you wouldn’t want anybody falling off in the next year or two.
you seem to have a good sense already. Your starting infield, as you said, is an easy call, with Andrus being the one player who might make you think twice. But with Jose Reyes incapable of staying healthy for long, Derek Jeter and Jimmy Rollins aging, and Troy Tulowitzki working his way back from an especially difficult injury (see Quentin, Vernon Wells and Derrek Lee), the shortstop position is even shallower than usual right now. Andrus might be the most trustworthy player after Hanley Ramirez, and he has a .316 slugging percentage.
you have to keep both Posey and Santana. Too much value there. given the shortage of talent at the catcher position, both might go in the first five rounds next year, and after that, who knows? Add them to the list, bringing your total to six.
that leaves seven keepers slots to divide between your outfielders and starting pitchers, and — I’ve got to tell you — I don’t see much worth keeping in the outfield. Kemp obviously deserves a spot as a player with first-round talent, but after him, Boesch and Torres are too hard to trust, and Stanton and Brown are too unproven. I have a hard time imagining any of those four going in the first 13 rounds next year.
So I guess you’re keeping six pitchers: Jimenez, Hernandez, Gallardo, Weaver, Hanson and Billingsley. Bumgarner could move past Billingsley with a strong finish, though, so keep an eye on him.
Same goes for Quentin, who began to rediscover his form just before the All-Star break. if it continues in the second half, you’ll want to make room for him.
I’m in a 10-team NL-only Rotisserie league and am currently in second place. I have just been offered Ryan Howard for Matt Kemp. I’m last in batting average and second-to-last in home runs. I could realistically move up four spots in batting average and only need five homers to move up three spots in that category. My concern is that I’d probably lose at least two spots in steals. what do you think? — George Manguso
SW: I think it’s worth it, George, especially given Howard’s second-half history.
The math makes sense to me. Howard could easily hit 20-25 homers the rest of the way — he has averaged 24.8 in the second half over the last four seasons — which would probably be enough to move you up those three spots. Kemp might not even hit 15.
since you’d only lose two spots in stolen bases, any gain in batting average is gravy. even so, looking at Howard’s .304 mark in the second half, you’d have to give the edge to him. I realize Kemp has been a good source of batting average in the past, but his poor strikeout-to-walk ratio leaves him vulnerable to more of this year’s struggles.
And Kemp might not be enough to keep you from sinking in stolen bases anyway. Check out his percentage. The Dodgers are trying to win the division, so they can’t afford for him to keep running into outs. besides, base-stealers tend to slow down in the second half. He might not steal more than five or six bags the rest of the way. He has yet to steal one in the second half.
seems like an easy call to me.
I’m in a 12-team Head-to-Head league and recently traded Joe Mauer, Ricky Nolasco and Aramis Ramirez for Jason Bartlett and Zack Greinke. I replaced Mauer with Buster Posey, so no major loss there, but I don’t have much use for Bartlett now that Troy Tulowitzki is off the DL. Really, this trade was all about landing Greinke. Did I sacrifice too much of my bottom line to do so? — Jimmy Spangler, Toledo, Ohio
SW: I guess you can think of Mauer and Posey as equals given the way Posey has started his major-league career, but I don’t know if you can honestly say “no major loss there.” When you have excess at a position, your goal should be to swing it for something as good at another position, not to write it off as expendable and no longer weigh the ramifications of trading it.
Really, Nolasco and Ramirez by themselves might be too much for Greinke given Ramirez’s sudden resurgence and Nolasco’s track record in the second half. Shoot, even with a 4.55 ERA in the first half, Nolasco has outscored Greinke this year. I’m not saying Nolasco and Ramirez for Greinke would be a bad trade — Greinke does have the highest ceiling of the three — but it’d hardly be a slam dunk.
And you didn’t just trade Nolasco and Ramirez. you threw in Mauer — threw him in, like you just claimed him off the waiver wire a week ago. He should have been the centerpiece of the deal — a first-round pick, the no. 1 catcher — and you treated him like a spare part.
even though Posey prevents your bottom line from taking a significant hit, I still say you got hosed. Mauer by himself should have been enough to land a surefire ace, and Greinke hardly still qualifies.
I’m in a 12-team Head-to-Head league where every team keeps four players. somebody offered me Jered Weaver, Clay Buchholz and a sixth-round pick for my main man Adam Wainwright. Should I go for it? — Bobby DiFiore
SW: another tempting offer for an elite player, but in this case, I don’t think the short-term benefits justify the move.
Thinking long-term, you’d much rather have Wainwright. He’s one of the best five pitchers in baseball and would obviously be one of your four keepers. Weaver and Buchholz, while good, aren’t there yet and might never be. you wouldn’t necessarily keep either of them.
that said, both are must-starts, so if you have a severely depleted pitching staff and have to incorporate Anibal Sanchez and Kevin Slowey types more often than any competitive team should, you might want to consider it. if you’re on the cusp of a playoff spot and the move would improve your bottom line, you might have to sacrifice the present for the future.
But if you have a decent amount of pitching depth already, the high-end arm of Wainwright is better for both the present and the future. nine times out of 10, I’d turn down that deal.
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